SALISBURY -- Rick Schwartz, a tracker of hurricanes since 1967 and author of the book "Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States," said the Delmarva Peninsula has been due for "the big one," and Hurricane Irene could be it.
Since the current active hurricane cycle started in 1995, Irene will be the first major mid-Atlantic coastal hurricane, a figure which is "way under historic norms," Schwartz said.
By this point in a typical cycle, Delmarva should have already seen two or three notable hurricanes, he said.In the last two active hurricane cycles -- one from the mid-1870s to 1904 and the other from 1933-60 -- there were six notable hurricanes to impact the area. He considered notable hurricanes as storms that produced more than $1 billion in damages.
"It looks like we're about to play catch-up," he said.
Hurricane Irene has the potential to rival with the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane of 1821 and the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, two of the most destructive mid-Atlantic coastal hurricanes of the 20th century that produced gusts in excess of 100 mph to the mid-Atlantic coast, a "tidal wave" effect in some locations and highly destructive wind damage and flooding, Schwartz said. The potential for damage as a result of Irene could include ocean flooding, fallen trees and damaged property, he said.
The most important consideration while tracking Irene, Schwartz said, is how much strength the storm would retain once it reached North Carolina.
"Irene will certainly lose strength between North Carolina and Delmarva," he said Friday. "The question is how much. If there is not substantial weakening and if the storm speeds up after turning north, any location in the path of the eye or within 50 miles east of the eye will experience a highly destructive wind and tidal flooding event. Even locations 50 miles west of the eye will likely experience hurricane force gusts for several hours and rainfall or tidal-related flooding."
Dangers
Schwartz said it is a safe bet that residents of the Delmarva Peninsula will see hurricane strength gusts -- which start at 74 mph -- and an extended period of heavy rain totaling 5-10 inches or more, rivaling the rainfall from Hurricane Floyd in 1999.Even if there is gradual weakening as the storm heads north, Irene has the potential to accumulate gusts that would exceed Hurricane Gloria of 1985, he said.
Ocean flooding is a significant concern, Schwartz said, especially given the combination of the presence of a new moon, which usually results in a higher tide to begin with, the timing of the high tide and the timing of the storm's arrival.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Friday that high tide would reach Rehoboth Beach at 7:29 a.m., Ocean City at 7:39 a.m., and Old Point Comfort in Hampton Roads at 8:59 a.m. Irene is scheduled to approach the Delmarva coast between 8 a.m. and noon on Sunday morning, Schwartz said.
"That's alarming," Schwartz said. "It's like anything you could devise to create the worst flooding scenario is starting to come into play."
After the ocean, Schwartz said one of the biggest dangers for the public to consider is falling trees. The combination of extreme gusts with a wet ground makes it very likely for trees to fall, he said, adding he expected the number of fallen trees as a result of Irene will compare with Hurricane Isabel in 2003 or Hurricane Hazel in 1954.
"Hurricane Irene could be one of nature's tools for pruning the eastern forests," he said. "The trees haven't had a big pruning since Hazel."
With an abundance of pine trees in the area, those who have large trees around their houses should reconsider staying in their homes. If they were planning on doing so, he said, they should consider the possibility that strong winds could knock trees over and onto homes or cars.
"It doesn't take a whole lot of wind to start snapping pine trees," he said.
Schwartz said to expect power outages within a 50-mile radius of where Irene strikes that could last as long as a week. Once the storm ends, property owners along the Shore are also likely to have damaged property and unprotected boardwalks will be damaged as well.
